E-Volution – “Let’s take a look, then we’ll see”

Hardly any other industry has been overtaken by so many changes at the same time within the recent years as the automotive sector. But how is future mobility developing from the customer’s point of view? Is the mobility ecosystem facing a fragmented future?

At a glance

• Customers do not expect fully automated vehicles before early 2030
• E-volution will continue to transform the automotive industry in the future, with demand for sharing mobility declining and seamless mobility remaining relevant
• Demand for smart, intelligent, interactive, and individual mobility is increasing, presenting OEMs with growing software development challenges
• Customer purchase decision depends on safety, available technology, in-country infrastructure, vehicle pool, and investment requirements

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E-volution: Will diesel and gasoline engines be a thing of the past even after the pandemic, or not so fast after all? And what about hybrid drives? According to forecasts, the future already belongs to the electric motor, a sustainably clean and innovative form of mobility. Densely populated cities, in particular, are continuously imposing strict regulations and thus promoting the “clean” trend.

While the connectivity, automation, and electrification clusters remain the main pillars of the e-volution and will continue to grow strongly in the future, sharing concepts are experiencing a slowdown, according to experts. It is being replaced by dynamic and smart solution approaches, the involvement of the individual in the co-design of the future automobile, and the sustainable orientation of the company.

Further, politics remains a key shaper of the e-volution. Here, too, the landscape is fragmented. While Europe and the U.S. are forecast to have well over 85% market penetration, China is at 44%. Nevertheless, Europe and China are considered to be the main drivers of e-mobility, whereas demand in the USA is significantly lower.

These circumstances are attributed to government initiatives. In Europe and China, both the development and purchase of electric vehicles is encouraged by various government subsidies, resulting in lower TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) for individuals.

Nonetheless, the e-volution will change the mobility ecosystem, albeit more slowly than initially suspected. The continuously increasing demand for intelligent, smart, and automated mobility, which enables holistic connectivity and ensures safety, presents automotive manufacturers worldwide with major challenges in the area of software development. In the area of connectivity, experts expect a market penetration of over 50% after 2025 with a continuing upward trend and the forecast to penetrate the entire market in the future.

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